No. 1 seeds have historically dominated No. 16 seeds since the NCAA tournament expanded its field in 1985.
UMBC became the first 16 seed ever to upset a No. 1 seed in 2018, when the Retrievers defeated Virginia and became an overnight sensation. In 2023, FDU became just the second 16 seed to knock off a No. 1, shocking Purdue.
Here's everything you need to know about 16 seeds vs. 1 seeds in March Madness.
History of 16 vs. 1 seeds in March Madness
- Top seeds own a 154-2all-time record against 16 seeds. FDU vs. Purdue in 2023 wasonly the second time the upset has happened. That means 16 seeds have a 1.28winning percentage against 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
- No game had been decided by one possession since 1996 (Purdue beat Western Carolina, 73-71).
- The highest scoring matchup took place in 1987, UNC’s 113-82 win over Penn.
- The lowest score in a 1 vs. 16 game is 99 points, which has happened twice — Georgetown’s 50-49 win over Princeton in 1989, and UCLA’s 70-29 win over Mississippi Valley State in 2008.
- The biggest blowout in the matchup's history was in 1998, when Kansas bullied Prairie View A&M for a 110-52 win.
The times a 16 almost beat a 1
A 16-seed has come within one point of a 1-seed twice. They were both in the 1989 NCAA tournament. Georgetown beat Princeton by a score of 50-49:
The second time was when Oklahoma outlasted ETSU, 72-71. ETSU led by 17 at one point, but OU stormed back:
That must have been a wake-up call for the Sooners, because they beat No. 9 seed Louisiana Tech by 43 points in the next round.
The next year, Murray State took Michigan State to overtime, but ultimately lost 75-71. The last time a 16 seed lost to a 1 seed by single digits was in 2014, when Arizona defeated Weber State 68-59.
The times it actually happened
In 2023, the matchup between 1-seed Purdue and 16-seed FDU looked like all but a certainty. Over 97% of brackets picked the Boilermakers to advance. After all, it was a matchup of the tallest team in the tournament — with Purdue led by the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey — and the shortest team in the field in FDU.
The Knights held their own, nursing a narrow lead for much of the game. The plan was not to stop the towering Edey as much as it was to nullify the rest of the Purdue offense. FDU did just that, forcing several errant shots and limiting the Boilermakers to just 36% shooting from the field in the 63-58 win.
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 18, 2023
Going into 2018, it always felt like the first 16-over-1 upset would be close. Well, that wasn't the case. UMBC beat Virginia 74-54 and was in control for most of the game.
UMBC would go on to lose to Kansas State by a score of 50-43 in the next round. Regardless, that Retrievers team will be remembered forever.
How much more likely is a 15-2 upset than a 16-1 upset?
Five and a half times more likely. No. 15 seeds have upset 2 seeds 11 times. Here are all of the times it's happened:
15-2 upsets| Year | Result | Score |
|---|
| 1991 | Richmond def. Syracuse | 73-69 |
| 1993 | Santa Clara def. Arizona | 64-61 |
| 1997 | Coppin State def. South Carolina | 78-65 |
| 2001 | Hampton def. Iowa State | 58-57 |
| 2012 | Lehigh def. Duke | 75-70 |
| 2012 | Norfolk State def. Missouri | 86-84 |
| 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown | 78-68 |
| 2016 | Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State | 90-81 |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts def. Ohio State | 75-72 |
| 2022 | Saint Peter's def. Kentucky | 85-79 |
| 2023 | Princeton def. Arizona | 59-55 |
There have been 2314-seed over 3-seed upsets, too. Clearly, the 16-1 is the most scarce, and by a significant amount.
🍿 2024 MARCH MADNESS: UConn wins back-to-backnational titles
🏀 MORE HOOPS:Men's hoops on B/R|One Shining Moment
🏆 HISTORY: Title winners | Winningest coaches | Winningest programs
FAQs
Top seeds own a 154-2 all-time record against 16 seeds. FDU vs. Purdue in 2023 was only the second time the upset has happened. That means 16 seeds have a 1.28 winning percentage against 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
How often does the #1 overall seed win the NCAA tournament? ›
The numbers are inclusive, so each team that won a championship is also included in the Final Four and championship game counts. No. 1 seeds have excelled in the tournament, winning 25 of the last 39 national championships (64.1%), including 13 of the last 17 (76.5%). There have been 39 No.
How many 15 seeds have beaten a 2 seed in March Madness? ›
There have been 11 upsets by No. 15 seeds in the history of the NCAA Tournament, with seven of those coming in the past 11 seasons.
Has a 14 seed ever beaten a 3 seed? ›
In 20 of the 39 years since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No. 14 seed has triumphed over a No. 3 seed.
What is the farthest a 16 seed has gone? ›
16-seeds have only gone as far as the second round in the NCAA tournament, and there are only two teams to have ever done it: the UMBC Retrievers in 2018, and the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights just last year in 2023. These were also the only two teams in men's hoops history to ever knock out a 1-seed in the postseason.
Has the 8th seed ever beaten the 1st seed? ›
1 seeded teams that lost to the No. 8s: Denver Nuggets (8) vs Seattle SuperSonics (1) - 1994. New York Knicks (8) vs Miami Heat (1) - 1999.
Has there ever been an NCAA Tournament with No 1 seeds in the elite 8? ›
The 2023 Elite Eight field will be a historic one
For the first time in men's NCAA tournament history there will be no No. 1-seeded teams competing in the Elite Eight. A No. 1 seed won't be hoisting the national title this year.
Has there ever been a Final Four with no #1 seeds? ›
History. The years where there were zero No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four: 1980, 2006, 2011 and 2023. The 1980 NCAA Tournament had 48 teams in the field.
Has a number one seed ever lost in the tournament? ›
Last season, the Purdue Boilermakers were the second team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to lose as a #1 seed in the Opening Round.
Why is Iowa state not a 1 seed? ›
The selection committee cited Iowa State's lack of schedule strength in non-conference play as its explanation for the Cyclones' seeding.
The lowest seed to win the NCAA Championship is Villanova. In the 1985 NCAA Tournament, Villanova was a No. 8 seed and defeated the one-seeded Georgetown Hoyas 66-64.
What was banned in basketball from 1967 to 1976? ›
To limit the player's dominance, the NCAA banned the slam dunk from 1967 to 1976.
Can a 16 seed beat a 1 seed? ›
Sixteen seeds are an all-time 2-150 against No. 1s in the NCAA Tournament, with the first 16-seed upset coming recently in 2018 with UMBC taking down Virginia, and the second-ever win coming last year with Fairleigh Dickinson taking down Purdue.
What is the biggest upset in March Madness history? ›
Biggest point-spread upsets in NCAA championship game history:
- Connecticut +9.5 over Duke, 77–74, in 1999.
- Villanova +9 over Georgetown, 66–64, in 1985.
- Kansas +8 over Oklahoma, 83–79, in 1988.
- North Carolina State +7.5 over Houston, 54–52 in 1983.
- Texas Western +6.5 over Kentucky, 72–65 in 1966.
A double-digit seed has never made it all the way to the title game. The lowest seed to appear in the final is No. 8 and it's happened four times: Villanova in 1985, Butler in 2011, Kentucky in 2014 and UNC in 2022.
What is the highest seed to ever win the NCAA Tournament? ›
Records for every seed in March Madness from 1985 to 2023
| SEED | OVERALL RECORD | BEST FINISH |
|---|
| No. 1 | 500-128 | Champions (25 times) |
| No. 2 | 354-147 | Champions (five times) |
| No. 3 | 281-148 | Champions (four times) |
| No. 4 | 235-150 | Champion (two times) |
12 more rowsMar 7, 2024
5 seeds in March Madness. There have been 53 upsets by 12-seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into 2024, the lower seed was 53-99, equating to a 34.87 win percentage.
How many times has a 13 seed beat 4 seeds? ›
Thirty-two 13 seeds have upset 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into the 2024 NCAA tournament, No. 13 seeds had a 32-120 record all-time. That equated to a 21.05 winning percentage.
How many times has a 10 seed beat a 7 seed? ›
10 seeds are only 59-92 straight up against No. 7 seeds since the NCAA Tournament field expanded in 1985, a winning percentage of 38.8%.
