The full NFL schedule was released last Wednesday. On Thursday, the Browns Digest staff posted our record predictions for the Cleveland Browns. I have the Browns matching their 11-6 mark from this past season. If the Browns do in fact go 11-6 once again, where would that likely place them in the playoff seeding?
Since the announcement of the schedule, I have been working on record predictions for the entire NFL. What began as a spreadsheet to calculate wins and losses, has now formed into a full analysis of what I expect this coming season to potentially look like.
For the Browns, an 11-6 regular season should once again place them in the top wild card spot with the fifth seed. Considering the fact that the schedule looks much more formidable on paper this year, this feels like a major win.
Last season, the entire AFC North finished above .500. This was the first time an entire division has finished with winning records since the merger. The last time this happened was back in 1935 in the NFL West. Despite being a rare accomplishment and one that will be difficult to emulate, I have the AFC North doing it again for the second year in a row.
The Baltimore Ravens have an easier schedule than the Browns and Steelers, plus they once again have an extremely talented roster. With a predicted 12-5 record and another AFC North Division Championship, the Ravens enter the 2024 postseason as the third overall seed in the AFC. The Steelers have had a strong offseason and look to be a playoff contender as well next season. Due to their brutal final eight week stretch with all six division games and meetings with the Eagles and Chiefs, they finish in third in the AFC North with a 10-7 record. That 10-7 mark ties them with the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. The Bills get the sixth seed due to tiebreakers and the Jets snag the final spot due to a head-to-head victory over Pittsburgh in Week Seven.
Finally, Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals come in fourth in the AFC North with a 9-8 record. The Bengals also have a talented team, especially on offense, yet their defense is not nearly at the same level of the Ravens, Browns and Steelers.
With an understanding of how the AFC North finished and information on the Wild Card spots, here are the remaining three teams not mentioned for the AFC bracket. The Kansas City Chiefs reclaim the number one seed in the AFC with a 13-4 record and get the first round bye. The Houston Texans match the 13-4 record of the Chiefs, yet get the two seed due to a Week 16 loss at Arrowhead. To round out the AFC, the Miami Dolphins happen to narrowly win the AFC East with an 11-6 record, clinching the four seed.
Even though the Browns would not be hosting a playoff game in 2024, traveling to Miami to face the Dolphins in the Wild Card round could be a near-best case scenario. The Miami Dolphins have the longest drought in the entire NFL when it comes to securing a playoff win. The last time they won a game in the postseason was way back in 2000, when Miami narrowly escaped the Indianapolis Colts 23-17 in overtime.
A 23-year drought is significant and the Dolphins certainly want to break that streak. However, the Browns did win a playoff game just three years ago and have many players on the current roster with playoff experience. With the talent on the current Browns' roster and recent history working in Cleveland's favor, I like the odds of advancing past the Wild Card round.
Based on the playoff seeding and my prediction of Baltimore advancing past Buffalo, while Houston takes out New York, the Browns would then need to travel to Arrowhead to once again face the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Anything can happen as the Browns look to avenge a heartbreaking Divisional Round 22-17 loss to Kansas City back in 2021.
It is hard to bet against the Chiefs and due to the rest the week prior, I have the Chiefs advancing to the AFC Championship Game. If the Browns get this opportunity in 2024 and manage to eliminate Kansas City, then this team could have enough momentum to make a serious run at winning the whole thing.
